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Norway absolute shortfall and severity calculator.

Calculate absolute shortfall with the method and new population norms in DMP's severity tool, and see the threshold value associated with that severity.

Built and reviewed by Hasan Bari, Founder and Managing Director · Updated October 2026

In Norway, severity is measured as absolute shortfall: the healthy life years a patient group is expected to lose with current standard treatment, compared with the general population of the same age. Enter the mean age and the undiscounted prognosis from your model.

Step 1: patient group
Step 2: general population

Expected remaining undiscounted QALYs at this age: 21.6

From DMP's severity tool (new Norwegian EQ-5D-5L norms, 2024 mortality data), effective 1 September 2025.
Step 3: prognosis
Optional: cost-effectiveness
Indicative result
0QALYs absolute shortfall

    Severity and threshold values

    DMP compares the cost per QALY with an opportunity cost of NOK 275,000 per QALY. Higher severity supports a higher willingness to pay. The threshold values rise in six steps with absolute shortfall, as proposed by the Magnussen group and described in the Ministry of Health and Care Services' 2024 expert group report. DMP confirmed the range of NOK 275,000 to NOK 825,000 per QALY in January 2026:[1, 2, 3]

    Absolute shortfall (QALYs)Threshold value (NOK per QALY)
    Below 4275,000
    4 to below 8385,000
    8 to below 12495,000
    12 to below 16605,000
    16 to below 20715,000
    20 or more825,000

    These values are reference points for an overall judgement, not absolute limits. Decision-makers weigh benefit, resource use and severity together, along with uncertainty and budget impact. Severity raises the threshold value; the QALYs themselves are not weighted. DMP does not state a rounding rule at band edges; this calculator places values such as 3.95 in the lower band.[4]

    Getting the inputs right

    • Age: Use the mean age at treatment start in the Norwegian patient group, consistent with the model and Norwegian clinical practice.
    • Undiscounted QALYs: Absolute shortfall uses undiscounted QALYs; the cost per QALY uses discounted costs and QALYs.
    • Current norms: Since 1 September 2025, adult submissions using EQ-5D-5L data apply the Norwegian EQ-5D-5L value set and the matching population norms, which this calculator uses. Where HRQoL was collected with EQ-5D-3L, the guideline refers to the Norwegian 3L norms instead.[5]
    • Very small patient groups: A separate assessment applies where the group is very small (fewer than about 1 in 100,000 worldwide and about 50 patients in Norway), the absolute shortfall is at least about 30 QALYs and the expected gain is at least about 2 QALYs.[6]

    For the full submission process, see DMP and Nye Metoder in Norway.

    References

    1. Direktoratet for medisinske produkter (DMP). Submission guideline (July 2026), chapter 13 [Internet]. Oslo: Direktoratet for medisinske produkter (DMP); [date unknown] [cited 2026 Oct]. Available from: https://www.dmp.no/globalassets/documents/offentlig-finansiering-og-pris/dokumentasjon-til-metodevurdering/submission-guideline-july-2026.pdf
    2. Ministry of Health and Care Services. expert group report on perspective and priorities [Internet]. Oslo: Ministry of Health and Care Services; 2024 [cited 2026 Oct]. Available from: https://www.regjeringen.no/no/dokumenter/rapport-fra-ekspertgruppe-om-perspektiv-og-prioriteringer/id3025560/?ch=5
    3. Direktoratet for medisinske produkter (DMP). rapid review of the opportunity cost [Internet]. Oslo: Direktoratet for medisinske produkter (DMP); 2026 Jan [cited 2026 Oct]. Available from: https://www.dmp.no/nyheter/hurtigutredning-av-alternativkostnaden--anbefaler-ingen-midlertidig-justering
    4. Direktoratet for medisinske produkter (DMP). Priority criteria (resource use, benefit, severity) [Internet]. Oslo: Direktoratet for medisinske produkter (DMP); [date unknown] [cited 2026 Oct]. Available from: https://www.dmp.no/offentlig-finansiering/offentlig-finansiering-av-legemidler-og-medisinsk-utstyr/hva-inneberer-prioriteringskriteriene-ressursbruk-nytte-og-alvorlighet
    5. Direktoratet for medisinske produkter (DMP). Tools for severity calculation and age adjustment [Internet]. Oslo: Direktoratet for medisinske produkter (DMP); 2025 Sep 1 [cited 2026 Oct]. Available from: https://www.dmp.no/globalassets/documents/offentlig-finansiering-og-pris/dokumentasjon-til-metodevurdering/tools-for-severity-calculation-and-age-adjustment-july-25-1.xlsx
    6. Direktoratet for medisinske produkter (DMP). Very small patient groups with extremely severe conditions [Internet]. Oslo: Direktoratet for medisinske produkter (DMP); 2024 [cited 2026 Oct]. Available from: https://www.dmp.no/globalassets/documents/offentlig-finansiering-og-pris/dokumentasjon-til-metodevurdering/small-patient-groups-mai24.pdf

    Rules reviewed October 2026. This calculator is indicative and independent of the agencies; check the latest official texts before submission.

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    FAQ

    Common questions

    Anything else? Email info@evidaxia.com.

    How is absolute shortfall calculated in Norway?

    Absolute shortfall is the general population's expected remaining undiscounted QALYs at the patient group's mean age, minus the patients' undiscounted QALY prognosis with current standard treatment.

    What is the opportunity cost per QALY in Norway?

    DMP compares the cost per QALY with an opportunity cost of NOK 275,000 per QALY. In January 2026, DMP and the Norwegian Directorate of Health recommended no interim adjustment.

    What threshold value applies to severe conditions in Norway?

    The threshold values rise in steps with absolute shortfall, from NOK 275,000 per QALY below 4 QALYs to NOK 825,000 per QALY at 20 QALYs or more.

    Is this calculator an official DMP tool?

    No. It is an independent, indicative tool that uses the population norms from DMP's published severity tool. DMP's own assessment of the submission is what counts.

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